Capability
Most scenario planning ends in a binder. Dragonfly's scenarios lens fits the method to the question — divergent four-scenario matrices, multi-pathway decision trees, backcasting from a target, and more — then makes the move from scenarios to strategy: the no-regret decisions, the contingent bets, and the signposts each future demands. Built for government strategic offices and long-horizon institutions navigating deep uncertainty.
Scenario thinking has been used by organisations like Shell, Cisco, BHP, and the Government of Singapore to navigate deep uncertainty. But too often the scenarios are the deliverable — four vivid stories that never translate into what to actually do.
The gap between scenarios and strategy is where the value leaks out. A set of futures is only useful if it changes a decision.
The scenarios lens first chooses the right method for the question. When two critical uncertainties dominate, it builds a four-scenario matrix. When the future turns on a sequence of decisions, it maps multiple pathways. When there is a target outcome, it backcasts the routes that reach it — and it can stress failure directly with a pre-mortem, or anchor a 'do nothing' baseline.
Scenarios are built on the analysis beneath them — the actors, drivers, and system dynamics already mapped — not spun from thin air. The lens then makes the move from scenarios to strategy: the no-regret moves that hold across the futures, the contingent bets each one rewards, and the early signposts that tell you which world you are actually entering.
Read: moving from scenarios to strategyBoard-ready scenarios in the method that fits — matrix, pathways, or backcast — a strategy mapped against them, and a signpost framework for tracking which future is unfolding — every reasoning step visible, every source traceable, delivered in days to weeks rather than months.
See the method, or bring us the question.